Will a Red Wave Crash the 2022 Midterm Elections
Are Republicans primed for another red wave in 2022?
Are the republicans poised for a red tidal wave in the November midterms? With inflation out of control and people struggling to make ends meet, are the Democrats in for a rude awakening? Let’s figure our what is going to happen.
The 2018 midterm elections have left the Republican Party in an unenviable position. After taking control of the House and Senate in 2017, they lost 22 seats in the House, and three seats in the Senate, and are now at their lowest approval rating in history.
The wounds from this midterm election may never heal, which means that there’s more than enough time to speculate about whether or not Republicans will retain control of Congress through the 2022 midterm elections, especially considering how much damage President Trump has caused to their already-sagging numbers.
Does Donald Trump Still Have Pull?
In 2020, Democrats will be looking to retain their presidential seat and also hope to win back majorities in both houses of Congress. It’s an uphill battle for them, but what if they don’t even come close to achieving these goals?
It’s hard to imagine it will be much of a setback, especially because most experts seem to agree that President Trump is done by 2024. The issue is with how things will play out between now and then.
If Trump were still beloved among Republican voters, it would likely become nearly impossible for any Democratic candidate in 2020 (and even 2024) to unseat him from his party’s nomination. The Republican base, some members more than others seem genuinely loyal to Trump.
After a Donald Trump backed candidate (JD Vance) from Ohio won on Monday May 3rd, it looks as if Trump still has his loyal base fired up.
Now What’s Left of the Old Republican Party in 2022?
Without saying too much about recent political history, let’s just say that some voters are pretty worn out by what they see as a never-ending game of musical chairs in Washington. In short, Americans want change, any kind of change.
And with Trump’s loyal base still undecided and Democratic upstarts like Elizabeth Warren already coming to prominence, it looks like voters might be in for some big surprises when they head to the polls. That’s not to say there won’t be an appetite for moderate candidates from both parties.
The Democrats Need To Get Their Act Together Quickly
It’s hard to believe that it has been more than six years since President Trump took office and despite numerous and repeated efforts to remove him from office in between.
Of course, you already know that none of those efforts have even come close to succeeding, but for all their noble intentions (and there were some), it’s clear that a lot of Democrats still don’t have any idea what they are doing.
How else could one explain why there is so much unrest within their party right now and such an obvious lack of excitement among voters when it comes to midterm elections?
Simply put, they need to fix these problems quickly. Otherwise, they are going to miss out on one hell of an opportunity in November 2022. Look out red wave!
The Rise of Political Outsiders
Despite their party affiliation, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were viewed as outsiders in 2016, due to their anti-establishment streaks. In 2020, more outsiders will likely emerge to claim that they can fix what’s wrong with America.
But will these independent candidates be viable in 2024? If so, we could see a red wave crashing on Election Day. As we head toward November 2022, it’s worth examining why so many political outsiders have surged over recent election cycles and whether or not there’s cause for concern ahead of 2024.
The talk on outsiders is Pete Buttigieg for the Dems and Ron DeSantis has his name being thrown around for the Republicans.
How Likely is Another Russian Interference Scandal, and How Will It Play Out This Time Around
Since at least 2016, Americans have been hearing about Russian interference and meddling in our elections. The infamous influence campaign is still rippling through politics, but it’s likely not over.
It’s hard to say how much of an impact another Russia scandal would have on voters since both parties have taken heat for failing to stop Russia from attempting to sow discord in America.
Depending on what comes out in the Durham probe, there’s a chance that yet another Russian interference scandal could end up playing into how voters cast their ballots in 2022.
The Shrinking Democratic Base
The Democratic Party and its voters are becoming older, more moderate, and more male at least relative to Republicans. In 2014, Democrats lost ground among voters age 50 and older, with an 8-point decline among those 65 and older.
During that same period, Democrats increased their support by 9 points among voters under age 30 but lost 5 points among those ages 45 to 64. In addition, as noted above, Obama’s victory marked only the second time in 60 years in which Democrats won less than 40 percent of white voters (the other being Clinton’s reelection effort).
The problem is twofold: Voters tend to become more conservative as they age (and thus are likely to be increasingly important in national elections), while younger cohorts are less likely to vote than their elders.
How To Reactivate Discouraged Democratic Voters
The outcome of midterm elections is often determined by how many people vote. As an active Democratic voter, you may be discouraged about their party’s chances in 2022 due to Trump’s 2016 victory.
However, re-engaging these voters could make all of the difference. To do so, focus on issues that matter most to them and make sure they know there are other Democrats that want to support their concerns.
You can do so by connecting with local Democrats or encouraging like-minded citizens to run for office as Democrats in red states during 2022 and 2024.
These actions will help determine what type of candidate emerges in time for 2024 as well as show swing voters that there are real alternatives out there should they be dissatisfied with Trump after his first term.
How Can Liberals Make Sure That They Win?
Any election is incredibly unpredictable, but we can be certain of one thing: If liberals want to ensure that they win in 2022, they need to make it easy and convenient for their supporters to vote.
When compared with conservatives, liberals tend to have lower voter turnout because their voters are younger and more likely to work irregular hours, both factors that contribute to making voting difficult. In 2018, only 57% of eligible liberal voters turned out.
That’s nearly 20 points lower than conservative voter turnout (76%). But if we look at young people who voted in 2018, 71% voted for Democrats; if only half of them came out in 2022 and split their votes 50/50, Democrats would win by an even wider margin.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, any predictions made based on early polling numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The information we have now is more than two years old and doesn’t necessarily apply to the current political environment.
What is clear, however, is that Democrats are going to have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto control of Congress next year. And as recent elections have shown, predicting who will win during a midterm year can be a tall order for pollsters.
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