What Could Happen if Roe vs Wade Gets Overturned?
Now that it’s been leaked, what should we know?
Yesterday, it was leaked the Supreme Court of the United States announced that it would consider overturning Roe vs Wade, which legalized abortion in 1973.
Some people are worried that this means that abortion will become illegal across the country; other people are worried that this means that abortion will become even more prevalent and safe.
To help you make sense of the whole situation, I’ve created this explainer detailing what Roe vs Wade is, how it might get overturned, and what would happen if it did.
A Brief History of Abortion
Roe v. Wade, which was handed down on January 22, 1973, ruled that a woman has a constitutional right to abortion at least in some circumstances. The decision struck down many state laws restricting access to abortion and created a legal precedent for future cases regarding reproductive rights.
But Roe’s legacy may be facing an uncertain future as President Trump has appointed his second Supreme Court justice in less than two years in office. Here’s what could happen if Roe v. Wade gets overturned.
Why Would the Supreme Court Overturn Roe v. Wade?
The Supreme Court often doesn’t have to right to decide on a case, though. A group of judges known as tie-breakers would decide what should happen in Roe v. Wade in that situation.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch are considered possible tiebreakers; only two of them (Thomas and Gorsuch) think abortion should be outlawed altogether.
They would almost certainly vote against abortion rights if, given that chance, the question is how much of an impact they’d have on Roe v. Wade depending on their colleagues’ votes.
What Would It Mean If They Do?
Once Roe v. Wade gets overturned, abortion will become a state-by-state issue. In some states, that may make abortion illegal or at least difficult to get. In others, abortion may be freely available.
The Supreme Court’s decision would allow states to determine what happens concerning access to abortions — but there are limits on how far those restrictions can go.
There are also lots of other questions about what a reversal of Roe v. Wade could mean for women and families across America. Here’s what you need to know.
Before we dive into specifics, it helps to review some history. In 1973, when Roe v. Wade was decided by the Supreme Court, abortion laws varied widely from state to state (and they still do).
Abortion, in general, wasn’t outright illegal everywhere in 1973; four states made abortion completely illegal without exceptions, but many more had restrictive laws or policies in place that limited when and where people could get abortions.
Who Is Affected By This Law?
Not everyone. While many people are up in arms about what will happen if Roe v. Wade is overturned, there’s no need to panic. Not everyone is affected by abortion law and whether it will change or not will also depend on how states choose to implement new laws that emerge in a post Roe world.
To get an idea of how important Roe vs Wade is to you personally, make sure you know who could be impacted by its overturning before deciding whether you should worry about it or not.
When Did This Country Start Leaking Information?
According to Politico, a leaked initial draft majority opinion suggests the United States Supreme Court is poised to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision, which legalized abortion nationwide.
Being able to keep secrets has never been more important than it is today. Just look at Hillary Clinton’s emails, Edward Snowden’s leak of NSA information, and most recently, Donald Trump’s failure to keep quiet about his tax returns.
If a President fails to keep sensitive information confidential, even after being sworn in as commander-in-chief, how can you trust that they can hold that kind of power?
Roe vs Wade has been in effect for decades, but what could happen if a reversal happened suddenly?
Potential Consequences for Women and Fetuses
In a recent survey, over 70% of Americans said they were in favor of overturning or overturning part of Roe vs Wade. However, only about 10 states have passed laws that would allow for legal abortions to become illegal; 38 states have laws protecting a woman’s right to an abortion.
In that case, it’s hard to say exactly what would happen if Roe vs Wade were overturned on a federal level since we haven’t experienced it before. Several aspects of life could change for women and fetuses depending on how individual states decided to handle it.
For example, access to contraceptives and family planning services might be limited. Some experts also predict that there would be a sharp increase in maternal mortality rates due to unsafe and unregulated abortions performed by people without medical training or facilities without sterile conditions.
There are also concerns about whether fetal personhood will be granted by state governments which could result in pregnant women being treated as criminals and jailed for actions such as drug use during pregnancy (which is already happening).
Finally, there are concerns about potential limits placed on birth control options such as IUD’s which can prevent the implantation of fertilized eggs into uterine walls but don’t end pregnancies like some forms of abortion do.
How Are Leaders Responding To This?
There were protesters in front of the Supreme Court the night of the news story leak. Battle sides are already being drawn. If you’re pro-choice, you might be feeling particularly anxious right now. But not all is lost yet.
Washington was taken aback by the unprecedented leak. It has the potential to reshape the political landscape ahead of the November midterm elections in the United States.
Here are what some of our leaders are saying:
“Congress must pass legislation that codifies Roe v. Wade as the law of the land in this country NOW. And if there aren’t 60 votes in the Senate to do it, and there are not, we must end the filibuster to pass it with 50 votes.” — Bernie Sanders
“This decision is a direct assault on the dignity, rights, & lives of women, not to mention decades of settled law. It will kill and subjugate women even as a vast majority of Americans think abortion should be legal. What an utter disgrace.” — Hillary Clinton
“The Supreme Court & the DOJ must get to the bottom of this leak immediately using every investigative tool necessary. In the meantime, Roe was egregiously wrong from the beginning & I pray the Court follows the Constitution & allows the states to once again protect unborn life.” — Tom Cotton (R) Senator
Why The Case Was Revisited
Now that President Trump has appointed conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch to fill Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat, and with several other recent appointments of conservatives, it was only a matter of time before reproductive rights advocates began worrying about their future.
These concerns were heightened when Justices announced they would consider revisiting Roe vs Wade (1973) during their new term, which starts in October.
The timing is somewhat ironic considering that Planned Parenthood recently celebrated its 100th anniversary by releasing a report analyzing decades of public opinion data on abortion access and safety.
It shows that Americans are becoming more supportive of women’s right to choose; nearly three-quarters say they support legal access to abortion services in all or most cases — up seven points since just 2014.
Possible Outcomes If Overturning Sticks
Most states have pre-Roe abortion bans still on their books, meaning that those laws could be enacted and some states are prepared to do just that. But, it’s impossible to know for sure what would happen if Roe was overturned.
There are too many variables, from politics and public opinion to logistical challenges like access to clinics and physicians who can perform abortions, to accurately predict what an overturning would mean.
A study from NYU’s Brennan Center estimated that 22 states could see bans on abortion immediately reinstated upon an overturning of Roe vs Wade; others say it would be closer to 19 or 16 states in a post-Roe world. Things could get interesting.
The History of the Case
To understand what could happen if Roe vs Wade gets overturned, it’s important to understand how it came to be in 1973. In 1965, Norma McCorvey was working as a carhop in Dallas when she found out she was pregnant with her third child.
Despite being a single mother of two and only 19 years old, McCorvey decided to have an abortion, but doctors refused because she was so far along in her pregnancy.
Not wanting to keep the baby or give it up for adoption, McCorvey tried to end her pregnancy herself but failed and sought legal action against Henry Willson Jr., the doctor who had referred her for an abortion despite being past 10 weeks gestation, which at that time was illegal under Texas law.
Final Thoughts
The Supreme Court is a highly unpredictable and wildly influential body, so it’s impossible to say for sure what could happen if Roe vs Wade gets overturned.
However, both sides of the abortion debate should be concerned about its potential impact on women’s health in America.
Regardless of your stance on abortion rights, supporting women’s access to contraception and STI testing should remain a priority. As for what would happen next in a post-Roe vs Wade America, we may never know exactly how individual states would handle legalized abortion.
But we can guess that making abortions illegal wouldn’t stop them from happening. The likelihood that new restrictions would lead many desperate women (and men) to turn toward unsafe methods also seems high.
What do you think about this issue? Where do you stand?
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